I-892 is Supported by Casinos
All I need to know about I-892 is that the casinos are in support of it. Right?
Well, that’s not exactly true. While knowing that casinos are in support of it is important, so is knowing what the expected financial impact would be. According to the Office of Financial Management, the total amount per year of revenue would be $277,000,000 in 2006, $690,300,000 in 2007, and $742,500,000 in 2008, 35% of which would go in to a special account (Equal Treatment Equals Lower Property Taxes Account) designed to lower property taxes.
Property tax savings on property with market value of $100,000 will be approximately $13 in Calendar Year 2007. Once the deployment of electronic scratch ticket machines is completed savings will rise to $32 per year for property with market value of $100,000 in Calendar Year 2009.
The property tax savings for the average home in the greater puget sound area ($269,800 in 2001) in the year 2007 would be $35.07, and by the year 2009 would be $86.33.
I believe that the majority of the revenue produced will come from Washington state residents — those that play the slot machineselectronic scratch ticket machines. The predicted adult population in 2007 is expected to total approximately 4,700,000 people (4,000,000 “working age adults” and 700,000 “elderly”). According to the above 2007 estimates, $690,300,000 in revenue, the average amount of money spent per adult, would be $146.87.
To summarize:
In 2007, adult residents (mostly) of the state of Washington are predicted to spend an average of $146.87 playing these machines, and will see their property taxes (if they own property, which many (perhaps most) do not) reduced by an average of $35.07. The estimates for later years look a bit better, but there are no estimates that show that the residents would ever come out ahead.
Well, that’s also not entirely true. Some specific residents will receive a portion of the revenue designated for the licensees. Chances are, you’re not one of them.
(Updated population prediction, I had counted all residents rather than just adults, changing the amount spent per person from $108 to $146.87 per year).